Shenehon Company has released the 2nd Quarter 2016 Economic and Real Estate Market Snapshot. The report highlights the following topics:
U.S. economy continued to expand in the first half of 2016
The energy industry continues to be hamstrung by a glut of supply and tepid demand
Leading indicators suggest economic growth at a modest pace through at least the immediate future
Tighter unemployment rates are putting upward pressure on wages
Home sales in the Twin Cities increased by 6.2% through May and sale prices rose by 5.6%
Twin Cities multifamily permitting activity is down
New Report by the Research Foundation
Office Space Demand Forecast:
Second Quarter 2016
Key report findings:
The national office market is forecast to absorb approximately 34.6 million square feet of space in 2016, down from 62.1 million square feet in 2015, as economic growth flattens in the U.S.
GDP growth, which slowed to 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016, is forecast to remain low, near 1 to 2 percent annualized growth, with the lower boundary of the GDP forecast dipping into slightly negative territory.
The current forecast projects net absorption of office space to regain some strength in 2017, totaling approximately 46.2 million square feet. However, this figure could change, depending on how the economy fares throughout the rest of 2016.
Economic Flattening Points to Declining Demand for U.S. Office Space Through 2017
The national office market is forecast to absorb approximately 34.6 million square feet of space in 2016, down from 62.1 million square feet in 2015, as economic growth flattens in the U.S., according to Dr. Hany Guirguis, Manhattan College, and Dr. Joshua Harris, University of Central Florida. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which slowed to 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016, is forecast by the model to remain low, near 1 to 2 percent annualized growth, with the lower boundary of the GDP forecast dipping into slightly negative territory. The current forecast projects net absorption of office space to regain some strength in 2017, totaling approximately 46.2 million square feet. However, this figure could change, depending on how the economy fares throughout the rest of 2016.
“Employment, both overall and in the office-using sectors, had maintained fairly steady growth until the most recent reading for April 2016, which registered only 160,000 net new jobs. This was well below the 200,000 jobs-per month threshold considered the minimum necessary for sustained economic growth,” says Harris. “We expect the overall declines in macroeconomic output to continue to result in lower employment gains for the rest of 2016.
Read more: Office Space Demand 2Q16
By: Dr. Joshua Harris, University of Central Florida and Dr. Hany Guirguis, Manhattan College
New lighting code standards could have unforeseen consequences for both tenants and building owners.
OPERATING COMMERCIAL real estate is such a complex process that it can sometimes be overwhelming. Building owners and operators need to keep track of demand, interest rates, management, attracting and retaining tenants, lease negotiations and so many other things that it is easy for some things to fall through the cracks. Often, those things that are overlooked can result in very expensive consequences.
One such event recently occurred. At the beginning of July 2015, new standards were released, which took effect that same month. These codes deal with energy efficiency standards that are mandatory for residential and commercial building owners to follow. One aspect of the code changes that could have unforeseen consequences for both tenants and owners of commercial space is new mandates associated with lighting fixtures and switches.
By: Robert Hartley, director of research for Colliers International in the Greater Washington D.C. area.
This article is adapted from one that originally appeared in “Colliers Insights.” Winter 2015 2016
Changes in the ownership, investment, retail, fulfillment center and supply chain landscapes will have big impacts on industrial real estate.
ALL EYES ARE ON the Industrial sector for a variety of reasons. Retailers and other warehouse occupiers are growing their distribution center footprints across the U.S., and e-commerce continues to stake its claim on the fulfillment and “last mile” landscape. The sector will also continue to see growing interest from foreign investors, and the Panama Canal expansion set to open in spring 2016 will help reshape supply chains and industrial development. Below are five themes to watch for in 2016:
More change in the ownership landscape. Thanks to a series of large-scale portfolio deals over the last few years, the overall ownership landscape for industrial and distribution properties in the U.S. is experiencing a significant shift toward institutionalization. That means that more Class A industrial and distribution center real estate will sit in the hands of increasingly fewer owners.
The evolution of the U.S. industrial segment toward institutionalization has been driven by a plethora of global forces. It has particularly benefited from the mounting number of investors that are allocating increased amounts of capital toward investment in alternative assets like commercial real estate (CRE), as the U.S. industrial segment offers wider spreads over risk-free investments than other CRE segments. With an estimated $60 billion in completed and forecasted sales for 2015, current deployed capital is seeking the low-risk, higher return opportunity with which institutional investors have become increasingly comfortable in the industrial segment.
Read more–Five Trends That Will Shape the Industrial Sector in 2016.
By: Aaron Ahlburn
Workplaces designed for the ways people will work in the future differ significantly from those that are handcuffed to saving money today. SHIFTING DEMOGRAPHICS and evolving technology have created an untethered workforce for many industries. Why would a tablet-packing employee choose the beige hues of the corporate office over the comfort of his home or the heady aroma and Wi-Fi access of her local Starbucks? Such a question would not have troubled managers or designers even 15 years ago. It would have been laughed at before the advent of the Internet. Not so today.
More than ever before, today’s untethered workers have alluring options when deciding where their work gets done. This trend will only expand to include more workers in the future. But there are two strong reasons why those employees will keep commuting to the office: to connect to their colleagues and to contribute to the company culture. They recognize that collaboration is critical to their success as well as that of the business. These workers are also often drawn to the idea of being a part of something bigger than themselves. Real estate (RE) and human resources (HR) specialists are in a unique position to protect and promote these motivating factors. Read More.
Written By: Glenn Roby, AIA, and Tony LaPorte
By Liz Wolf | MNCAR
There’s no question that Minnesota has among the highest property taxes in the nation – and property taxes are being disproportionally collected from commercial and industrial properties.
Commercial and industrial properties account for less than 13 percent of the total property market value in Minnesota, yet they account for more than 30 percent of all property taxes collected.
“Minnesota’s classification of property taxes places an undue burden on commercial and industrial properties,” says Matt Anfang, executive director of MNCAR.
What exactly is the C/I tax?
Over and above the property tax that a business pays—like any property owner– to the local city, county and school district, it also pays an additional state property tax that goes to the state’s general fund. This statewide business property tax was enacted in 2001 and automatically increases with inflation each year. Read more.
AJ Chivetta doesn’t hesitate: Crowdfunding is changing the way people can invest in commercial real estate. And because of this, the number of people investing in commercial real estate through crowdfunding will only grow in the coming years, he said.
Chivetta should know. He’s a founder and chief executive officer of Selequity, a St. Louis-based company that helps investors place their dollars in commercial real estate properties across the country. He’s seen up-close just how eager consumers are to invest in commercial real estate properties that were formerly out of their reach.
“Crowdfunding solves problems for both sides of the commercial real estate transaction,” Chivetta said. “Investors are looking for opportunities to invest in real estate. They are looking for the kind of yields that real estate has long afforded people, especially in low-interest-rate environments. Real estate owners and operators are always looking for new investors and capital.
“With crowdfunding, more investors can gain access to commercial real estate, and owners can attract capital from a greater number of people,” Chivetta said.
Continue reading Commercial real estate crowdfunding is here to stay, say the industry’s pioneers.
Written by Dan Rafter, REJournal.com.
In the article The Future of Work: How office design is changing, times have changed, Jonathan Webb, vice president of workplace strategy at KI, told HR Dive. As millennials and younger workers enter the workforce straight from college, more workers are demanding different work environments that allow and encourage the flexibility and movability that they had during university.
But employees of all ages are also seeking offices that encourage health and wellbeing — and that means saying goodbye to cramped spaces, windowless walls and sitting for eight hours straight.
What defines the office of the future? We spoke to the experts to find out. Read more.