ECONOMIC UPDATE: Industrial Building Values

ECONOMIC UPDATE
Is This 2008 All Over Again?
Industrial Building Values

Even in the best economies, owners are curious about the value of their building. In times of economic uncertainty, this question takes on even more significance. For many business owners, this recession may be forcing them to ask the tough questions related to building values. The short answer is that buildings are not worth what they were 60-days ago. Beyond that, future predictions require a well-informed analysis.

First, a bit of history. The 2008 Great Recession eliminated most of the demand for industrial space, both for lease and for sale; however, the supply of available buildings did not change significantly. This supply and demand imbalance created a significant drop in building sale prices that was at times up to 33%. Contrasted with today’s environment, the low supply of available buildings has pushed prices to unheard of levels. In fact, some high-quality owner-user buildings were selling for $100 per square foot or more, an all-time high in the Twin Cities. The current crisis will certainly reduce demand for buildings, which is already becoming obvious through terminated purchase agreements, fewer showings, fewer offers, and reduced offer prices.

Naturally, values must come down, but will they drop precipitously like they did in 2008? Probably not. And here are a few reasons why:

#1: Some industrial companies are thriving which will preserve some demand for industrial buildings
For example, clothing manufacturers are now making masks, plastic extruders are now making partitions for retail stores, medical manufactures are now making face shields, and the list goes on. This is different than 2008. During that crisis, it was hard to find any thriving industrial business that still wanted to buy real estate.

#2: Banks are still lending and interest rates for owner-users are exceptionally low

For example, the SBA 504 rate is currently 2% over the 5-year Treasury bill, which is under 1%. Bank interest rates are also 1-2% lower than before the crises. This lower cost of capital will help those who are thriving to borrow money for real estate.

#3: There is pent up demand

Many companies have been searching for the right building to buy for years. Because supply has been so low, these companies have lost out in multiple-offer situations and because many buildings traded immediately when hitting the public market. Many of these would-be buyers are still healthy and able to jump on the right opportunity when it appears.

So, back to the original question, what is the value of your industrial building today? Recent reductions in list prices and re-trading of existing deals indicates that values have declined by 10%-20%. A more accurate analysis is to look at values over time. Down 10%-20% today; however, if the drop-off in economic activity continues, values could continue to fall. A resurgence of Covid-19 could create the dreaded “W” recession, and another dip in economic activity and value. If the economy is opened for business soon and can get back to a more normal level of activity, values may stabilize and begin to rise as we all get back to work.

Stay tuned for more analysis as events unfold over the next few months.
Minnesota COVID-19 Resources for Businesses

United States Federal Government Response to COVID-19

Contact Paramount.
Call John Young
(952) 854-5067
jyoung@paramountre.com

Paramount Has Moved. We Are Here to Help You.

PARAMOUNT HAS MOVED.

     We hope that this message finds you and your family healthy and adjusting to the new normal of social distancing and working from home. After a week of uncertainty about whether or not the move to our new headquarters could be completed on schedule, particularly with a stay-at-home order in place, all of our vendors came together and we moved into our new space at Southpoint Office Center on March 31, 2020.


As of April 1, 2020, our new address is:

Southpoint Office Center
1650 W 82nd St, Ste 725 | Bloomington, MN  55431
(All of our other contact information remains the same.)

Stop in and check out our new digs!

WE ARE HERE TO HELP YOU.

     We are looking forward to the day when the entire Paramount Team can come back together to work in our new office space. In the meantime, we are working remotely and continuing to provide sound real estate advice along with seamless service to help our clients navigate in this rapidly changing business environment. 

     No one can predict for certain what the world will look like after COVID-19 is brought under control. Paramount has endured through many challenging times during the past 24 years and we are committed to be here for you in the future. Stay healthy, think positive and please let us know if we can be of any assistance to you.
Best Regards,
Paramount Real Estate Corp | TCN Worldwide

Fred Hedberg, CCIM, SIOR | Principal

(952) 854-8290
 

ECONOMIC UPDATE: Is This 2008 All Over Again?

ECONOMIC UPDATE
Is This 2008 All Over Again?

Is this 2008 all over again? The answer is “maybe”, but “probably not”. Let’s go back in time. The 2008 Great Recession started with cash being drained from the monetary system.  This was due to a massive failure of collateralized debt obligations held by the largest banks and over-building in the housing sector. This created a liquidity trap where Federal Reserve monetary policy was ineffective.  Interest interest rates were already low and consumers were holding cash. There have been three notable liquidity traps in recent history: post-depression 1930’s America; Japan’s mid-1990’s recession; and most of the world after the 2008 great recession.
Although we have not had the customary two quarters of negative GDP, most economists are saying we are now in a recession. However, this one did not begin with the same cash drain as the 2008 crises, but is it creating the same liquidity trap? Not exactly.
This recession started with sharply reduced demand due to social distancing/quarantining and subsequent job losses. It did not start with cash being drained from the worldwide banking system. To date, almost 10 million Americans have filed for unemployment and, according to Goldman Sachs, the U.S could lose 37% of its GDP, the largest hit to GDP in history.

What is the main difference between 2008 and now? The $2.0 trillion fiscal stimulus bill is more than twice the size of the stimulus bill in 2009 and it is focused on both businesses and consumers including a $1,200 direct payment for most Americans. In other words, there is far more fiscal stimulus pouring into the economy meant to save businesses and maintain some amount of consumer demand.
 
How bad will it get? Let’s think about a few important questions:

QUESTION #1: When will this current economic downturn end?
Answer: If the epidemiological models are correct, sometime in June or July we may get back to our near normal routines.

QUESTION #2: How much injury will be done to businesses and consumers?

Answer: It depends on how much cash businesses or consumers started with. If businesses and consumers have enough cash to pay rent, mortgages, and basic needs, then maybe there will be pent up demand and we can take off quickly. On the other hand, if working capital, credit cards, and other loans are already maxed out and cash is low, then a period of months (6-12 months????) may be necessary for the economy to come out of this recession.

QUESTION #3: Will the Fed, U.S. House and Senate be effective in combating this recession?

Answer: Yes, so far. They are bringing out the big guns with both fiscal stimulus and monetary policy.

QUESTION #4: Will there be an inflation hangover from all this borrowing?
Answer: Many economists are saying, “no”. Primarily because the U.S. is borrowing money at a negative real interest rate, and technology and innovation have kept inflation low since 2008, a trend that will probably continue. For example, we are all working from home now and most businesses will learn, just like 2008, that they can do more with fewer people and smaller real estate footprints. These factors, among others, should keep the inflation-making prices and wages mix under control.
One thing is certain, we all need to buckle up for a rough few months and cross our fingers that businesses and consumers are ready to spring into action very soon.
Minnesota COVID-19 Resources for Businesses

United States Federal Government Response to COVID-19

Contact Paramount.
Call John Young
(952) 854-5067
jyoung@paramountre.com

TCN Worldwide Named in the Top 25 Commercial Real Estate Brands for 2020

We are proud to announce that once again TCN Worldwide has been named in the top 25 for Lipsey’s Top Brand Survey. Each year the Lipsey Company performs a survey to establish the most recognizable names inside of the Commercial Real Estate Industry and this year TCN Worldwide increased its brand recognition moving up two spots. Thank you to all who voted, and especially our TCN members!
Learn more about Lipsey’s Top Brand Survey here: https://lipseyco.com/top-commercial-real-estate-companies/

Call Paramount Real Estate Corporation
for all of your real estate needs.
(952) 854-8290

Minneapolis Building Sells to Development Firms

The former Java Jacks & Studio 2 Building in Minneapolis will become a new neighborhood hang out with the addition of a yet-to-be-named restaurant.  John Young, Vice President Brokerage Services sold the building to a partnership between United Properties and Westwood Hills (a development company).  Plans are in the works for a new restaurant, which should be open in late Summer or early Fall.  The property garnered several offers and a lot of interest by the adjoining neighborhood.  It has been a favorite in the area for a couple decades and now it will have another great community asset, coming soon.

For the best in commercial real estate
service and solutions

Call John Young
(952) 854-5067
jyoung@paramountre.com

TWIN CITIES MARKET SNAPSHOT

The Minneapolis-St. Paul Real Commercial Estate Market continues to perform admirably with office and industrial sectors demonstrating excellent performance throughout 2019.  The Markets characteristics remain upbeat and include positive net absorption of vacant space, moderate to low vacancy rates and measured new speculative development.  Economic conditions remain favorable however, recent statics raise concern for the continued overall economic growth in Minnesota and the USA.   While inflation continues to remain low at about 2% (annualized), unemployment has increased from 2.5% to 2.9% and median income for Minnesota households as stagnated year over year at $70,300-both still much better numbers than the national averages of 3.4% unemployment and median household income of $63,179 respectively. The 15 month trade war with China combined with all of the uncertainty in Washington DC (impeachment and gridlock) and slowing business investment-down 1% on an annualized rate last quarter create potential headwinds to sustained future economic growth.

Industrial Market


 
Industrial has been the best performing asset class of real estate since the Great Recession in 2009.  Vacancy rates are at an all-time low (4.9%) in a Twin City universe of 248 million square feet and have decreases by 1% since the beginning of 2019.

Net Absorption of available space stands at 2.73 million square feet through the third quarter of this year with bulk (high-bay) warehouse experiencing 1.74 million square feet of net absorption. Driving the net absorption has been e-commerce related companies localizing the distribution of almost everything now available on the internet.
To date there are 27 industrial projects under construction totaling 3.6 million square feet.   1.9 million square feet has already been delivered to the market.

Collectively, what all this most likely indicates is a continuation, at least through 2020, of relatively good conditions and performance for the industrial market.  The two current deterring factors, other than an economic slowdown, are the cost of tenant improvements and finding and hiring employees.

Office Market

The office market continues its long standing recovery albeit some sub markets are stronger than others.   The overall office vacancy rate for all Twin Cities office properties is 11.8%, which is down .8% from January 2019, however within multi-tenant properties the vacancy rate is 15.4%.  The northeast office market has the lowest vacancy rate at 8.6% and St. Paul CBD has the highest vacancy rate approaching 20%. Class A multi-tenant office space has the lowest vacancy rate at 12.5%, Class B Office space is at 17.7% and Class C is 13.8%.
Net absorption Year to Date is 363,871 square feet.  Actual absorption Year to Date is 504,247 square feet, however sublease space create 128,052 square feet of negative absorption.

The office market performance has instilled enough confidence in a local developer to spec a 361,104 square foot office building in the West End mixed use development named 10 West End. Net rental rates are projected to start at $25.50/sf.

One new office market characteristic that has been gaining momentum is the demand for building amenities.  Many office buildings have completed or are planning to complete updates to building common areas, add amenities such as work out areas, coffee bars, common area meeting spaces, food service, and concierge services among other things.  Many of today’s sophisticated tenants want space that is fun, functional and will retain and attract top talent in the current tight labor market.

IS IT THE “AMAZON EFFECT”???

The Twin Cities industrial real estate market is HOT!
Is it the “Amazon Effect”?

Amazon’s 24-hour delivery promise requires them to lease multiple, dispersed, and well-located distribution centers, which, in turn, is driving up building values and rents all over the country. Case in point, two recent owner/user building sales. First, a 31,000 square foot building in Mendota Heights sold for $86.69 per square foot, and second, a 63,000 square foot building sold for $88.91 per square foot. Just a few short years ago, these would have been sold for $70.00-$75.00 per square foot. Winning the lottery would be great, but it seems like owning a 10,000 to 60,000 square foot industrial building anywhere in the Twin Cities (especially in the 494/694 loop) is the next best thing.
Funny thing happens when building values go up…rents go up, too. Multi-tenant landlords throughout the City are pushing up rates by $0.25-$0.45 per square foot and, for renewals, they are not accepting rents below the last lease rate in effect for the lease.
All of these factors are now fueling a resurgence of sale/lease backs. Recently, two sale/lease back transactions had sale prices 20% over the normal market price with seller’s signing ten-year leases. This put cash in the seller’s pocket to fuel business growth and provided much needed investments to Opportunity Zone or 1031 exchange investors. “Amazon Effect” or not, building values are climbing with no end in sight…for now.
~Written by John Young, CCIM | Vice President

Contact Paramount for a Building Valuation,
Lease Review or Market Update
(952) 854-8290

MNCAR Industrial Market Trends | Q2 2019 | Minneapolis-St. Paul

Written by: MNCAR/Redi Comps
Economic Overview
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the Mpls-St. Paul metropolitan statistical area (MSA) increased 40 basis points from 2.7% for May 2019 from 2.3% for May 2018.  The unemployment rate for the U.S. was at 3.6% in May 2019, down from 3.8% Y-o-Y for the US.  The Mpls-St. Paul MSA saw an increase in industrial job growth in manufacturing increasing 1,200 during the same period.
Market Overview
The Mpls-St.Paul industrial market consisting of 244M SF in eight counties across the metro posted over 829,000 SF of positive absorption for Q2 201\98.  The overall vacancy rate for the market stands at 5.0% and multi-tenant vacancy was 8.0% for Q2 2019.  The average asking lease low rate was $5.67 and high rate was $9.22 NNN for Mpls-St. Paul.  To date, there are 12 construction projects throughout the market totaling over 2.4M SF and 1.8M SF was delivered year to date.
Market Highlights
At the close of Q2 2019, the market experiences over 1.6M SF of leasing activity.  The vacancy rate finished the year at 5.0% in total with the Southeast and West markets being the tightest at 4.0% for all properties.  Illume held the top spot in absorption with 277,000 SF in the Northwest market.  The Northwest market is showing the highest vacancy rate at 6.1% for all properties while Northeast is highest for multi-tenant properties at 9.4%.
READ ENTIRE REPORT: Q2-19_Mpls-St_Paul_Industrial_Market_Report
 

MNCAR Office Market Trends | Q2-2019 | Minneapolis-St. Paul

Written By: MNCAR/Redi Comps
Economic Overview
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the Mpls-St. Paul metropolitan statistical area (MSA) increased 40 basis points from 2.7% in May 2019 to 2.3% in May 2018. The unemployment rate for the U.S. was at 3.6% in May 2019, down from 3.8% for the Y-o-Y for the US.  The Mpls-St. Paul MSA saw a decrease in office job growth, professional, financial and information increased by 1,200 during the same period.

Market Overview
The Mpls-St.Paul office market, consisting of over 127M SF of space in seven counties across the metro posting 131,600 SF positive absorption for Q2 2019.  The vacancy rate for the market stands at 11.3% for all properties for Q2 2019.  Total year-to-date absorption is 256,750 SF.  Multi-tenant properties posted 14.9% with 175,000 SF positive absorption .  The average asking lease rate for Mpls-St. Paul came in at $24.30 PSF FSG. To date, there are 15 construction projects throughout the market totaling over 2.7M SF.
Market Highlights
During the second quarter 2019 the market experienced over 1.1M SF of leasing activity and the vacancy rate finished the quarter at 11.3% in total. Class A properties ended the year at 8.6% for all properties and 12.7% for multi-tenant properties.  The West market posted the lowest vacancy rate at 11.3% for multi-tenant properties.  For the second quarter the West Market carried the market with the most positive absorption of 63,000 SF.  St Paul CBD posted the largest negative absorption of 90,000 SF.
READ ENTIRE REPORT: Q2_19_Mpls-St_Paul_Office_Market_Report
 

Commercial Real Estate Tip | September 2019

Q & A
Commercial Real Estate Questions Tenants often Ask Regarding Their Occupancy
Written by Bob Johnston | Vice President Sales & Leasing

QUESTION #1:  What if the Landlord is not finished building out my space by the time I want to move in?
ANSWER: If the Landlord is actually responsible for the completed work, much depends on how the lease is written and the commencement date defined. For example, a commencement date can be tied to the substantial completion of the space, so the lease will not commence until the Landlord completes the work. Sometimes, the date is even contingent upon occupancy and the commencement of business in the space. On the other hand, there might be a specific commencement date defined.  If the Landlord is late, the lease language will generally state that there is no culpability on the Landlord’s part, but the commencement date becomes the date on which the space is completed and the initial term extended from that date. In short, these issues are negotiable and dependent on each tenant’s situation.

QUESTION #2:  Toward the end of each calendar year, the Landlord sends us a note informing us of the new Common Area Maintenance (CAM) & Real Estate Tax estimate for the following year. However, we never get a breakdown of the actual expenses. Is that available?
ANSWER:  Most landlords will provide that information if requested. It always helps to have language in the lease that allows for a tenant’s review of the costs; and with larger tenants, audit rights are always helpful.

QUESTION #3:  What do I need to do to get the tenant improvement allowance provided by the Landlord?
ANSWER: Typically, for smaller tenants with smaller budgets, all that is required is a formal letter requesting Landlord reimbursement of the allowance and proof of completion accompanied by all subcontractor lien waivers. For larger jobs, sometimes a title company gets involved and administers “construction draws” and monitors the construction progress.

QUESTION #4:  Do I need to hire a disinterested third party architect to confirm the size of my space?
ANSWER: Typically not.  This can be warranted in certain circumstances. Individual spaces/bays are already pre-measured by the building’s architect and floor plans are drawn based on those measurements. Therefore, the space computation is generally accurate. RU factors can vary by building, and are often much higher in smaller buildings.  It helps to check the accuracy of the actual useable space and clarify the respective RU factor to calculate the rentable area (the number that determines the annual rent).

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