INDUSTRIAL MARKET UPDATE: YEAR END 2020
2020 was a challenging year to say the least. COVID-19 had a significant impact on the economy, everyone’s daily lives, and of course the commercial real estate industry. Unemployment has still not recovered from the impact of the pandemic. It remains over 3% higher than the previous year on a national level. At year-end, unemployment was 6.7%. Minnesota’s unemployment rate at year-end 2020 was 4.4%, up from 3.3% at year-end 2019.
Industrial Absorption Remains Strong
The Industrial real estate market demonstrated surprising strength after a significant pause during Q2 and Q3 of 2020. Net absorption of available industrial space for Q4 totaled a robust 1.24 million square feet and 2.48 million square feet (Multi & Single Tenant) for the entire year. In comparison, total net absorption for Q4 2019 was 728,962 square feet and a robust 3.186 million square feet for all of 2019. This shows there is a decreasing supply of industrial real estate in the current market.
Industrial Category Stats
In both 2019 and 2020, Warehouse Distribution space (buildings with 24’ clear height or higher) outperformed Flex/R&D and Office Warehouse net absorption; totaling more than both other categories combined. Net absorption for Warehouse Distribution space totaled 1.973 million square feet in 2020 and 1.769 million square feet in 2019. Clearly Warehouse Distribution has been the best performing industrial product type. Overall, the industrial vacancy rate Year End for 2020 stood at 4.9%. Warehouse Distribution space stood at 4.5% and Office Warehouse vacancy rates were 0.2% lower than Warehouse Distribution space. When accounting for the 3.68 million square feet of new speculative development currently under construction, most of which is Warehouse Distribution space, this additional square footage has little impact on vacancy rates.
The weakest portion of the industrial market continues to be the Flex/R&D (Office Showroom) product. COVID-19 has exacerbated an already weak 2019 performance. YTD Net Absorption for Flex/R&D was a -182,645 square feet and has the highest vacancy rate at 9.5%.
Factors Driving Demand
Warehouse Distribution product will continue to perform better than any other segment of the market in 2021. Demand is driven by a number of variables that appear will only increase the need for more and higher quality high bay space going forward. Tenants are willing to pay new construction rates to benefit from operational efficiencies of new construction, particularly for in-fill locations in urban areas. The demand from 3PL (Third Party Logistics) companies and Last Mile Home delivery companies will increase. This will be a direct result of more consumer purchases online. In addition, investor demand to acquire this product type is stronger than ever. Investors are driven by strong property-level fundamentals, relative liquidity, and a broadening of their appetite due to the global yield environment.
While COVID-19 has negatively impacted the market, this high demand and low supply in the industrial real estate market has resulted in property sales and lease rates to increase over the last year. We expect this trend to continue into and throughout 2021.
Written By: Phil Simonet, Principal | Industrial Sales & Leasing
Q4 2020 Industrial Market Update
INDUSTRIAL MARKET UPDATE: YEAR END 2020
Q3 2020 INDUSTRIAL MARKET UPDATE
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the Mpls-St Paul metropolitan statistical area (MSA) increased 500 basis points to 7.9% for August 2020 from 2.9% for August 2019. The unemployment rate for the US was 8.4% in August 2020 up from 3.7% last year. State of Minnesota unemployment rate was 7.4%. The Mpls-St Paul MSA saw a decrease in job growth. Also a decrease in industrial job growth in manufacturing dropping 11,200 during the same period.
The Mpls-St Paul industrial market consists of 261 msf in eight counties across the metro and posted over 682,000 sf of positive absorption for Q3 2020 while multi-tenant properties posted 152,000 sf positive absorption. The overall vacancy rate for the market stands at 4.9% and multi-tenant vacancy increased to 8.0% for Q3 2020. The average asking lease low rate was $5.97 and high rate was $9.57 NNN for Mpls-St Paul. To date, there are 19 construction projects throughout the market totaling 2.5 msf and 17 properties were delivered year-to-date with 2.1 msf.
At the close of Q3 2020, the market experienced over 2.5 msf of leasing activity in 180 transactions. ShopJimmy was the largest space leasing 413,000 sf in the Southeast market. The Southeast and Northeast markets vacancy rate being the tightest at 3.9% and 3.8% for all properties while the Southwest market topped at 6.6%. The Northeast market had two of the top five property spots in absorption with Target buying 399,000 sf and Tomas Commercial buying 140,000 sf property. The Northeast market experienced the largest vacancy of Modern Tool with 180,000 sf. Sixty three properties sold with over 2 msf for $124.8 million.
The Mpls-St Paul market consists of single and multi-tenant industrial buildings 20,000 sf or larger or part of a complex larger than 20,000 sf. The geographic area includes Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, Washington and Wright counties. The tracked set does not include selfstorage facilities and non-conforming property types such as grain elevators or fuel storage facilities. All tracked properties are existing. Statistically, net absorption will be calculated based on occupancy change during the current quarter. Asking lease rates are based on an average asking rate and noted on a NNN basis.
Reach out to one of our Industrial Agents with questions:
Fred Hedberg, CCIM, SIOR, Principal
Phil Simonet, Principal
John Young, CCIM, Vice President
Joseph Schultz, Associate
Jack Buttenhoff, Associate
View Full Report: Q3 2020 MNCAR Industrial Market Report
Source: Minnesota Association of Realtors (MNCAR)
Q3 2020: OFFICE MARKET UPDATE
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the Mpls-St Paul metropolitan statistical area (MSA) increased 500 basis points. To 7.9% for August 2020 from 2.9% for August 2019. The unemployment rate for the US was 8.4% in August 2020 up from 3.7% last year. State of Minnesota unemployment rate was 7.4%. The Mpls-St Paul MSA saw a decrease in job growth. As well as a decrease in office job growth in professional, financial and information dropping 21,300 during the same period.
The Mpls-St Paul office market, consisting of over 128 msf of space in seven counties across the metro topping 95,000 sf negative absorption for Q3 2020. The vacancy rate for the market stands at 12.5% for all properties. Multi-tenant properties posted 16.4% vacancy with over 64,000 sf negative absorption. The average asking lease rate for Mpls-St Paul came in at $25.02 psf FSG. During Q3 2020 there were 9 construction projects throughout the market totaling just over 1.3 msf.
During the Q3 2020 the market experienced over 1.1 msf of leasing activity in 251 transactions. Class A properties vacancy rate dropped for all properties this quarter to 10.3% compared to 8.8%. It also dropped to 15% for multi-tenant properties compared to 12.7% Q2 2020. For multi-tenant properties the Northwest market posted the lowest vacancy rate at 10.6%, Mpls CBD vacancy was 18.7%, St Paul CBD was 18.4% and suburban markets was 14.6%. Southwest market posted the most positive absorption of 137,000 sf with The Nerdery leasing 60,000 sf and new delivery of Bridgewater Corp. The West market posted the largest negative absorption of 125,000 sf for all property types led by Dominium space available for lease with 53,000 sf.
The Mpls-St Paul market consists of single and multi-tenant office buildings 20,000 sf or larger or part of a complex larger than 20,000 sf. The geographic area includes Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott and Washington counties. The tracked set does not include medical or government properties. All tracked properties are existing. Statistically, net absorption will be calculated based on occupancy change during the current quarter. Asking lease rates are based on an average asking rate and noted on a FSG terms with Net type leases grossed up.
View Full Report: Q3 2020 MNCAR Office Market Report
Source: Minnesota Association of Realtors (MNCAR)
INVENTORY STORAGE? Proceed with caution.
Since 2017, days of inventory have increased for manufacturing firms nationwide, which means inventory storage has also increased. Days of Inventory in 2019 hit 59, up from 53 in 2018, and 51 in 2017. Mathematically, a decrease in the cost of sales could be causing this. COGS have actually increased slightly from 75.80% of revenue in 2017 to 75.98% in 2019. This indicates that firms have an increasing amount of inventory. Assuming this is not an over-production issue, firms are not selling as much as years prior.
This could be interpreted as a sign of economic slowdown, even before the Covid-19 storm made landfall. The increase in inventory may lead some businesses to think that they need additional space, which they may have a legitimate need for, but if the underlying reason is because of a weaker economic environment, the right course of action for the business to take might not be committing to a new long-term lease. Companies that absolutely need to move product offsite may want to explore third-party warehousing as an option. It is not as cost-effective as leasing traditional warehouse space on a per square foot basis, but allows the end-user the flexibility to change on a month-to-month time horizon.
The global health crisis has further complicated the situation. Some manufacturers now cannot keep enough stock to satisfy their customer’s needs. This may temporarily reduce the need for additional storage, even though it would be financially feasible. As with most circumstances, each should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.
Written by: Joseph Schultz, East Team Associate
Q1-2020 Office Market Report
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the Mpls-St Paul metropolitan statistical area (MSA) decreased 30 basis points to 3.1% for February 2020 from 3.4% for February 2019. The unemployment rate for the US was 3.5% in February 2020 down from 3.8% last year. State of Minnesota unemployment rate was 3.1%. The Mpls-St Paul MSA saw an increase in job growth but a decrease in office job growth in professional, financial and information dropping 1,200 during the same period.
The Mpls-St Paul office market, consisting of over 125 msf of space in seven counties across the metro topping 133,000 sf negative absorption for Q1 2020. The vacancy rate for the market stands at 12.0% for all properties. Multi- tenant properties posted 15.6% vacancy with over 48,800 sf positive absorption. The average asking lease rate for Mpls-St Paul came in at $24.59 psf FSG. During Q1 2020 there were 22 construction projects throughout the market totaling just shy of 2.9.
During the Q1 2020 the market experienced over 1.2 msf of leasing activity in 283 transactions. Class A properties vacancy rate started the year at 9.0% for all properties and 13.1% for multi-tenant properties. For multi-tenant properties the Northwest market posted the lowest vacancy rate at 9.7%, Mpls CBD vacancy was 16.2%, St Paul CBD was 20.5% and suburban markets was 14.4%. Mpls CBD Core market posted the most positive absorption of 141,000 sf with Merrill Corp lease of 78,000 sf topping the list. Southwest market posted the largest negative absorption of 182,000 sf for all property types primarily due to Comcast vacating 108,000 sf and Cliqstudios vacating 104,000 sf in a single tenant properties.
Employment: up 1,969,253
Area Unemployment: down 3.1
U.S. Unemployment: down 3.5
Office Jobs: down 516,60
Total Inventory: 126,158,494 sf
Asking Rate: $24.59
New Construction: 2,895,944 sf
MNCAR: Q1-2020 Industrial Market Report
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the Mpls-St Paul metropolitan statistical area (MSA) decreased 30 basis points. This is 3.1% for February 2020 which is down from 3.4% for February 2019. The unemployment rate for the US was 3.5% in February 2020 down from 3.8% last year. State of Minnesota unemployment rate was 3.1%. The Mpls-St Paul MSA saw an increase in job growth but a decrease in industrial jobs in manufacturing dropping 400 during the same period.
The Mpls-St Paul industrial market consists of 258 msf in eight counties across the metro and posted over 223,000 sf of positive absorption for Q1 2020 while 184,000 sf positive absorption for multi-tenant properties. The overall vacancy rate for the market stands at 4.7% and multi-tenant vacancy was 7.4% for Q1 2020. The average asking lease low rate was $5.81 and high rate was $9.35 NNN for Mpls- St Paul. To date, there are 23 construction projects throughout the market totaling just under 3.7 msf and 5 properties were delivered this quarter with 575,902 sf.
At the close of Q1 2020, the market experienced over 2.2 msf of leasing activity in 194 transactions with AbelConn leasing the largest space of 110,329 sf in the Northwest market. The Southeast market vacancy rate being the tightest at 4.1% for all properties while the Northwest market topped at 6%. The Northeast market had four of the top five property spots in absorption with Bluvera leasing 93,000 sf, Hajoca leasing 75,845 sf and Lindenmeyr Munrow leasing 60,102 sf. The Northwest market experienced the largest vacancy of Honeywell with 250,000 sf. The Southwest market held the next two spots with Sams Club vacating 180,000 sf and Quad Graphics/ American Color vacating 160,000 sf.
Total Inventory: 258,482,636 sf
Total # of Bldgs: 3,004
Asking Rate Low: $5.81 NNN
Asking Rate High: $9.35 NNN
Under Construction: 3,728,557 sf
TWIN CITIES MARKET SNAPSHOT
The Minneapolis-St. Paul Real Commercial Estate Market continues to perform admirably with office and industrial sectors demonstrating excellent performance throughout 2019. The Markets characteristics remain upbeat and include positive net absorption of vacant space, moderate to low vacancy rates and measured new speculative development. Economic conditions remain favorable however, recent statics raise concern for the continued overall economic growth in Minnesota and the USA. While inflation continues to remain low at about 2% (annualized), unemployment has increased from 2.5% to 2.9%. Median income for Minnesota households as stagnated year over year at $70,300. Both still much better numbers than the national averages of 3.4% unemployment and median household income of $63,179 respectively. The 15 month trade war with China combined with all of the uncertainty in Washington DC (impeachment and gridlock) and slowing business investment-down 1% on an annualized rate last quarter create potential headwinds to sustained future economic growth.
Industrial has been the best performing asset class of real estate since the Great Recession in 2009. Vacancy rates are at an all-time low (4.9%) in a Twin City universe of 248 million square feet and have decreases by 1% since the beginning of 2019.
Net Absorption of available space stands at 2.73 million square feet through the third quarter of this year. With bulk (high-bay) warehouse experiencing 1.74 million square feet of net absorption. Driving the net absorption has been e-commerce related companies localizing the distribution of almost everything now available on the internet.
To date there are 27 industrial projects under construction totaling 3.6 million square feet. 1.9 million square feet has already been delivered to the market.
Collectively, what all this most likely indicates is a continuation, at least through 2020, of relatively good conditions and performance for the industrial market. The two current deterring factors, other than an economic slowdown, are the cost of tenant improvements and finding and hiring employees.
The office market continues its long standing recovery albeit some sub markets are stronger than others. The overall office vacancy rate for all Twin Cities office properties is 11.8%, which is down .8% from January 2019, however within multi-tenant properties the vacancy rate is 15.4%. The northeast office market has the lowest vacancy rate at 8.6% and St. Paul CBD has the highest vacancy rate approaching 20%. Class A multi-tenant office space has the lowest vacancy rate at 12.5%. Class B Office space is at 17.7% and Class C is 13.8%.
Net absorption Year to Date is 363,871 square feet. Actual absorption Year to Date is 504,247 square feet, however sublease space create 128,052 square feet of negative absorption.
The office market performance has instilled enough confidence in a local developer to spec a 361,104 square foot office building in the West End mixed use development named 10 West End. Net rental rates are projected to start at $25.50/sf.
One new office market characteristic that has been gaining momentum is the demand for building amenities. Many office buildings have completed or are planning to complete updates to building common areas, add amenities such as work out areas, coffee bars, common area meeting spaces, food service, and concierge services among other things. Many of today’s sophisticated tenants want space that is fun and functional. They want space that will retain and attract top talent in the current tight labor market.
Shenehon Company has released the 2nd Quarter 2016 Economic and Real Estate Market Snapshot. The report highlights the following topics:
U.S. economy continued to expand in the first half of 2016
The energy industry continues to be hamstrung by a glut of supply and tepid demand
Leading indicators suggest economic growth at a modest pace through at least the immediate future
Tighter unemployment rates are putting upward pressure on wages
Home sales in the Twin Cities increased by 6.2% through May and sale prices rose by 5.6%
Twin Cities multifamily permitting activity is down
READ ENTIRE MARKET REPORT—Shenehon Twin Cities Market Report – Q2 2016