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MNCAR Office Market Trends | Q2-2019 | Minneapolis-St. Paul

Written By: MNCAR/Redi Comps
Economic Overview
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for the Mpls-St. Paul metropolitan statistical area (MSA) increased 40 basis points from 2.7% in May 2019 to 2.3% in May 2018. The unemployment rate for the U.S. was at 3.6% in May 2019, down from 3.8% for the Y-o-Y for the US.  The Mpls-St. Paul MSA saw a decrease in office job growth, professional, financial and information increased by 1,200 during the same period.

Market Overview
The Mpls-St.Paul office market, consisting of over 127M SF of space in seven counties across the metro posting 131,600 SF positive absorption for Q2 2019.  The vacancy rate for the market stands at 11.3% for all properties for Q2 2019.  Total year-to-date absorption is 256,750 SF.  Multi-tenant properties posted 14.9% with 175,000 SF positive absorption .  The average asking lease rate for Mpls-St. Paul came in at $24.30 PSF FSG. To date, there are 15 construction projects throughout the market totaling over 2.7M SF.
Market Highlights
During the second quarter 2019 the market experienced over 1.1M SF of leasing activity and the vacancy rate finished the quarter at 11.3% in total. Class A properties ended the year at 8.6% for all properties and 12.7% for multi-tenant properties.  The West market posted the lowest vacancy rate at 11.3% for multi-tenant properties.  For the second quarter the West Market carried the market with the most positive absorption of 63,000 SF.  St Paul CBD posted the largest negative absorption of 90,000 SF.
READ ENTIRE REPORT: Q2_19_Mpls-St_Paul_Office_Market_Report
 

NAIOP Office Space Demand Forecast

New Report by the Research Foundation
Office Space Demand Forecast:
Second Quarter 2016
Key report findings:

The national office market is forecast to absorb approximately 34.6 million square feet of space in 2016, down from 62.1 million square feet in 2015, as economic growth flattens in the U.S.
GDP growth, which slowed to 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016, is forecast to remain low, near 1 to 2 percent annualized growth, with the lower boundary of the GDP forecast dipping into slightly negative territory.
The current forecast projects net absorption of office space to regain some strength in 2017, totaling approximately 46.2 million square feet. However, this figure could change, depending on how the economy fares throughout the rest of 2016.

 
Economic Flattening Points to Declining Demand for U.S. Office Space Through 2017 

The national office market is forecast to absorb approximately 34.6 million square feet of space in 2016, down from 62.1 million square feet in 2015, as economic growth flattens in the U.S., according to Dr. Hany Guirguis, Manhattan College, and Dr. Joshua Harris, University of Central Florida. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which slowed to 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016, is forecast by the model to remain low, near 1 to 2 percent annualized growth, with the lower boundary of the GDP forecast dipping into slightly negative territory. The current forecast projects net absorption of office space to regain some strength in 2017, totaling approximately 46.2 million square feet. However, this figure could change, depending on how the economy fares throughout the rest of 2016.
“Employment, both overall and in the office-using sectors, had maintained fairly steady growth until the most recent reading for April 2016, which registered only 160,000 net new jobs. This was well below the 200,000 jobs-per month threshold considered the minimum necessary for sustained economic growth,” says Harris.  “We expect the overall declines in macroeconomic output to continue to result in lower employment gains for the rest of 2016.
Read more:  Office Space Demand 2Q16
By: Dr. Joshua Harris, University of Central Florida and Dr. Hany Guirguis, Manhattan College